A mere 60 days ago that the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club went six without a win, the question was if Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason of Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. When Rogers curled home his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their opening six fixtures, now sit just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough query to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, even as the positive results have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the team had an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side which has put together 10 in a row, Villa seem curiously susceptible – yet currently the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach looks like to trade blows with an opponent and wait for Rogers to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United had more efforts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival they will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the hero faced the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
